e-forecasting.com’s flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in February to $19,370 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+3.1%) in the three months to February 2020.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions “…a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 4.6% in February, the same as in in January…”, said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
“Officially, with two months of monthly-GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2020, monthly GDP is at a quarterly growth path of 3.1%. When March numbers will come in, three weeks from today, we will have a complete three-month quarterly estimate of the first quarter. Strong possibility, the way numbers are generated in the mills of DC, we may be pleasantly surprised to have an excellent (normal) first quarter for 2020 …” Simos typed in his note to subscribers instead of the usual one-liner, when the digest was emailed.
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